Julian Wells Says:
February 2, 2018 at 9:42 pm |
Wang Zhenying’s musings seem to be so much blether; but in principle agent-based modelling with heterogenous (types of) agents has much to offer, especially if combined with explicit consideration of networks. Even so-called zero-intelligence models can provide food for thought — see Ian Wright’s “Social Architecture of Capitalism”: see https://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0401053
Emails (from 2018-02-05) firstname.lastname@example.org
PhD is an attempt to investigate their [Machover and Farjoun] gamma hypothesis; download here; http://oro.open.ac.uk/22347/
Only skimed thesis and above links. Worth studying later.
From email 2018-02-06:
Re your point 2:2. Will be particularly interested in how you handle the asset valuation problem.My assumption is that it is fundamentally intractable – fixed capital stock valuations depend on capitalizations of expected future profits at expected future average rates. Hence inherently uncertain rather than merely stochastic. If particular sections of your thesis could be read on that before I have time to work through from start, please give page numbers.I don’t really deal with *how* to deal with expectations, since I take the opposite line — that the first question is *whether* to do so, and that the answer is *no*. Chapter 2, section 1, deals with this and argues that conventional accounting data *should* be used, and the rest of the chapter deals with more technical questions.In Ch 2.1 you will see that I rely on Rob Bryer’s work; since then he has produced much more in the same vein, including now a book:
Have now read thesis Ch2.1 and skimmed rest of chapter 2 which has useful survey of theories on rate of profit etc.
Agree on importance of accounting and will return to study details. Must get recommended Robert Bryer book (meanwhile will read working papers especially those related to thesis).
Surprised to see support for TSSI (and interest in “transformation problem”) but looks much more interesting than I would expect from that.
No option but to use accounting data (carefully massaged) both for what Julian is doing in thesis and for the variables available to agents and observers of the ABM toy model I want to do.
But the price and profit rate fluctuations that must emerge from any useful toy model of business cycle are characterized by regular crises and bankruptcies from divergence between accounting appearances and actual underlying realities. Comparison between book values of assets and market caps suggests their correlation is cyclical (market caps way above now and will crash to way below). This is what Marx and Maksakovsky were studying and I want to illustrate with ABM.
Should lookup published papers above.
Have downloaded working papers:
Accounting for Value in Marx’s Capital The Invisible Hand
(07 Sep 2017) not yet in Library Genesis
ebook: Adobe DRM STG 108
Hardback: Used from STG 59.54 to new 63.38