Sectoral and Seasonal Cycles

The business cycle has some features in common with aspects of seasonal and sectoral fluctuations.

Well known agricultural phenomena of “hog cycle”, “corn cycle” etc with “cobweb theorem”. See entries in Business Cycles Encyclopedia and google etc.

Could provide helpful reference points for explaining Maksakovsky’s theory and the difference between it and other theories related to “fixed capital” and espcially gestation lags (which don’t connect to recurrent massive wave of investment at higher organic composition following price margins crash that then starts new cycle with renewed disproportions at higher organic composition).

“Supply Chain” course from MITx on edX highlighted “ship-building cycle” which is very prominent and looks more like a two year inventory cycle than like one year agricultural cycles. Could also illustrate shorter sectoral version of Maksakovsky?

Studies go way back eg Tinbergen:

doi = {10.1007/bf01712795},
title = {Tinbergen’s contribution to business-cycle theory and policy},
author = {P. de Wolff},
publisher = {Springer},
journal = {De Economist},
issnp = {0013-063X},
issne = {1572-9982},
year = {1970},
month = {03-04},
volume = {118},
issue = {2},
page = {113–125},
url = {},

See other articles same issue and entry for Tinbergen in Encyclopedia.

Reference 8 “A Shipbuilding cycle?” from 1931 is translated in ref 1 “Selected Papers” not found.


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